On the eve of Iran’s formal response to incentives too end its nuclear program, they barred United Nations inspectors from an underground nuclear installation, breaching their obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
“UN officials described as unprecedented the decision to block their inspection of the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. Iran is obliged under the 1968 non-proliferation treaty to inform the UN of progress at its nuclear sites.” [1]
So, the question is what are we going to do? Are we to allow Iran to continue to delay meeting their obligations to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty until they have the nuclear weaponry that they are determined to have?
Below is an article that I put together back in January of this year—2006—and still nothing has been done and I donot believe that anything will be done. Russia and China have major oil interest in Iran, so even if we were in the position to use force against Iran…would that mean that Russa and China would join forces with Iran?
“Has Iran Successfully Used Stall Tactics to Evade Sanctions” January, 2006
Has Iran successfully used stall tactics to evade sanctions being placed on them by the west? Not that sanctions are effective anyway. Now that Iran has resumed nuclear enrichment activities, what will be our options for stopping them from developing nuclear weaponry?
The New York Times is reporting that,
Foreign ministers from Britain, France and Germany scheduled a meeting for Thursday morning in Berlin to discuss the situation. All three nations have reacted to Iran’s resumption of nuclear research by threatening to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for possible punitive actions, and Iran has responded with defiant new warnings.
The tougher new European approach fits in with the United States’s strategy. Vice President Dick Cheney, in an interview with Fox News, said Wednesday that the Bush Administration would seek the adoption of “a resolution that could be enforced by sanctions, were they to fail to comply with it.” [2]
However, the two years spent by the EU negotiating and by the US in an attempt to appease our disgruntled allies has allowed Iran to prepare for such sanctions; rendering the possibility of sanctions ineffective if they were to be applied. The New York Times:
“The issue cannot be solved by imposing sanctions or similar measures,” said Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former Iranian president. The West would regret any such attempts, he warned in a speech on Wednesday as Iran celebrated the Muslim holiday of Id al-Adha. “I believe the West has played this game too late and played into Iranian hands,” said Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. “At this stage, they are convinced that the more hardball they play, the more the West will collapse.” Mr. Milani said that news reports from Iran suggested that its government had used the last few years to sign up oil deals with various countries to gain their political support, dispersed its nuclear activities to some 300 sites around the country and stockpiled food, medicine and other materials to survive any sanctions. [2]
In fact, not only is Iran prepared for any sanctions placed upon them, but simply as the result of possible sanctions being placed on Iran, the price of Crude oil has gone up. This from United Press International:
Energy prices up as Iran pushes nuke plans NEW YORK, NY, United States (UPI) — Crude oil prices rose Thursday as traders watched the deteriorating relationship between Iran and western powers clashing over nuclear issues. Prices for high-quality crude oil for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 62 cents to $64.56 a barrel. Products` prices edged up, too: Gasoline futures gained 2.53 cents to $1.7584 a gallon, and heating oil picked up 2.15 cents to $1.7486 a gallon. Natural gas was steady at $9.238 per million Btu. Iran`s decision to resume nuclear enrichment activities raised the specter of the United States and various European nations referring the Islamic republic to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. [3]
So, what do we do now? Well there has been talk that the US may bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. This may be our only option at this point and I’d say that it is a distinct possibility that we will.
[1] Nuclear inspectors barred from Iran plant Francis Harris in Washington August 23, 2006 http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/nuclear-inspectors-barred-from-iran-plant/2006/08/22/1156012541214.html
[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/12/international/middleeast/12cnd-iran.html?oref=login